Research published Monday suggests that river flows reduced by climate change could cause problems for nuclear plants in the coming decades.
The study in the journal Nature Climate Change modeled future hydrological conditions, water temperatures and power production to estimate the effects of warming on thermoelectric power plants that use fresh water for cooling. The research was led by University of Washington engineering Professors Dennis Lettenmaier and John Yearsley, in conjunction with researchers at Wageningen University in the Netherlands and the Institute of Energy and Climate Research in Germany.
They projected that a dearth of cooling water will result in a 4 to 16 percent drop in coal and nuclear generating capacity in the U.S. between 2031 and 2060. In Europe, the study predicted a decrease of 6 to 19 percent in that time. Also, water-condition-related shutdowns are expected to increase. The study predicted the likelihood of extreme drops in power generation will nearly triple, according to a UW release.
Currently, thermoelectric plants provide 90 percent of the electricity in the U.S. The researchers suggest inland plants with once-through cooling in the Southeast will see the greatest effects.