As it considers the proposed refurbishment of reactors at Darlington, Canada's nuclear regulator released a study Wednesday that forecast limited public health effects in the event of a severe accident at the facility.
Specifically, the study (.pdf) modelled the potential radiation exposure from a beyond-design-basis accident resulting in significant core damage or fuel degradation in a spent fuel pool. It considered radiation exposure during the first seven days of an accident, assuming Ontario's corresponding evacuation, sheltering and potassium iodide distribution plans were followed. Among the hypothetical scenarios studied, none resulted in a detectible increase in cancer risk among adults. In the most severe scenario, the future risk of thyroid cancer among children living 7.5 miles from the plant would increase from 1 percent to 1.3 percent.
The odds of the modelled accident occurring were estimated at one in 10 million. That risk would be "practically eliminated," though, had the study considered safety enhancements mandated following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents in Japan, according to a release from the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission.