Global energy demand is expected to surge 25 percent between 2014 and 2040, energy giant ExxonMobile said Monday in the lastest release of its annual Outlook for Energy report.
The 2016 edition of the report predicts the world's population will grow by about 2 billion people in the next 25 years with emerging economies expanding significantly. “Growth in energy demand will occur in developing nations that are not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,” according to the report. “Per capita income in those countries is likely to increase by 135 percent,” over the same period.
In a statement, ExxonMobile said that natural gas would be expected to meet about 40 percent of the growth in global energy needs, as demand for that fuel increases by 50 percent.
Nuclear and renewable energy sources – including bio-energy, hydro, geothermal, wind and solar – are also likely to account for nearly 40 percent of the growth in global energy demand by 2040. “By then, they are expected to make up nearly 25 percent of supplies of which nuclear alone represents about one third,” said the company.
Among the key findings in the report:
In 2040, oil and natural gas are expected to make up nearly 60 percent of global supplies, while nuclear and renewables will be approaching 25 percent. Oil will provide one third of the world’s energy in 2040, remaining the No. 1 source of fuel, and natural gas will move into second place.
North America, which for decades had been an oil importer, is on pace to become a net exporter around 2020.
India will surpass China as the world’s most populous nation, with 1.6 billion people. The two countries are expected to account for almost half of the growth in global energy demand.
Global demand for electricity is expected to increase by 65 percent, and 85 percent of the increase is in non-OECD nations.
The share of the world’s electricity generated by coal is expected to fall to about 30 percent in 2040 from approximately 40 percent in 2014.
Global energy demand from transportation is projected to rise by about 30 percent, and practically all the growth will be in non-OECD countries.
Sales of new hybrids are expected to jump from about 2 percent of new-car sales in 2014 to more than 40 percent by 2040, when one in four cars in the world will be a hybrid. Average fuel economy will rise from 25 to about 45 miles per gallon.
Already the world’s largest oil-importing region, Asia Pacific’s net imports are projected to rise by more than 50 percent by 2040 as domestic production remains steady and demand increases.