World Nuclear Association Director General Agneta Rising challenged the nuclear power industry to kick electricity generation up a notch, saying at the organization's symposium in London Thursday that the goal should be to increase capacity by 1000 GW by 2050.
“We are ready to do more,” Rising said on the same day the WNA released its Nuclear Fuel Report that said there was more than enough uranium supply and adequate enough processing capacity to carry the industry through its next growth spurt.
Rising said the industry should provide the globe with a quarter of its power generation by 2050. Ms. Rising also said, “Nuclear electricity output is set to increase at a faster rate over the next five years than we have seen for more than two decades. More must be done so that nuclear energy can make the contribution being asked of it, to deliver a clean, affordable and reliable electricity supply in harmony with other low-carbon options.”
Rising envisions nuclear power capacity growth reaching 1,250 GW by 2050, from the present 400 GW today.
The WNA also released its biennial fuel report that draws on an industry-wide survey that encompasses both utility companies and suppliers, including non-WNA members.
The report tracks three separate scenarios: An upper scenario, a lower scenario and a reference scenario, all of which are meant to be “plausible” said research group leader Hendrick de Baenst.
A gain in capacity from 379 GWe this year to 404 GWe by 2020 and to 552 GWe by 2035 was used as the reference scenario. The upper scenario envisioned gains to 429 GWe and 720 GWe, along the same timelines.
Compared to the previous report (released in 2013), the reference and upper scenarios are slightly lower, the WNA said.
The bottom line is that the raw uranium market is expected to have adequate supplies through 2025, so long as no unforeseen developments derail mining or services. Beyond 2025, however, production needs to increase if the industry's trajectory follows the reference or the upper scenario pathways.
Fuel conversion and enrichment are expected to support a lower or reference scenario trajectory through the forecast period. Fabrication, however, considered sufficient within the lower, reference and upper scenarios, the report said.