In the months following the multiple-reactor accident at Fukushima Daiichi, as many as 39 of Japan’s 54 reactors have been taken offline. If they stay that way, a recent report by Japan’s Institute of Energy Economics suggests the ensuing electricity shortage could have severe impacts on the country’s economy.
The report, quoted by the Nuclear Energy Institute, indicates that if idled reactors are not put back into service starting this fall, it could cause a 7.8 percent primary energy supply shortage the following summer and potentially reduce Japan’s gross domestic product by $98 billion, or 5.6 percent. Before the accident, nuclear supplied 30 percent of the country’s power and had been slated to provide 50 percent by 2030. But Prime Minister Naoto Kan and others in the Japanese government have recently called for a gradual reduction in its use.
In addition to any changes to Japan’s long-term energy policy, the country’s reactors face a more immediate threat from local resistance to plants’ operation. Several regional governments have resisted restarting reactors following fueling outages and enhanced safety inspections put in place after the accident. All of the still-operating plants have maintenance shutdowns scheduled between now and next May, Reuters reported. Another government estimate released Friday surmised that if all of Japan’s reactors were offline by that time, the country would face a 10 percent summer power shortage, a 20 percent increase in electricity prices and reduced industrial production.